Dutch Gambling Tax Hike Falls Short of Revenue Forecasts

The Netherlands gambling tax increase has generated less revenue than initially projected, according to a joint monitoring report from the Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit. The shortfall covers the period from the January 2025 rate change through early 2026.

Tax Adjustments and Revenue Gap

The levy on gross gaming revenue rose from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025, followed by a further increase to 37.8% on 1 January 2026. Financial planners expected these adjustments to add €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. Actual figures show an additional €2 million for 2025 and an estimated €57 million for 2026 compared with 2024 levels. The report notes that isolating the exact impact of the tax changes from other market shifts remains difficult.

Market Dynamics and Regulatory Changes

A shrinking tax base drives the revenue gap. Player protection regulations introduced in October 2024 capped monthly net deposits at €300 for adults under 24 and €700 for older players. Marketing restrictions also took effect, with television programme sponsorship banned on 1 July 2024 and sports team and kit sponsorship prohibited from 1 July 2025. The revenue surge following UEFA Euro 2024 has since normalized, while ongoing regulatory reviews have added market uncertainty. Several land-based venues closed or restructured operations, citing compressed margins from the higher levy.

Impact on State Operators and Venues

State-controlled companies absorbed financial impacts. Holland Casino recorded profit declines of approximately €27 million in 2025 and €54 million in 2026 before corporate tax. Nederlandse Loterij projected reductions of €16 million and €34 million across corporate tax, statutory levies, and profits for the same years. These decreases partially offset the new tax income. Physical venue attendance dropped roughly 11% year-on-year between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026, with gaming hall numbers continuing to decline. Licensed operators maintained their charitable and sports funding contributions at 2024 levels.